Fantasy football is an emotional sport, and the rookie draft is the most emotional time of the season.

Everyone is falling in (or out) of love with the incoming draft class, with the belief that this may be their only chance to secure their new favorite player. Since you're here, you already know that moments like this create opportunity. Opportunity to play on emotion, outsmart your league-mates and win that trade.

Every league is different, but with a little bit of planning, you can be the most prepared person in the room. Below we'll identify a few strategies to separate yourself from the rest of your league.

Identify Team Needs:

Nobody likes the guy who sends random trades that make no sense for your team.

Take some time before your draft to assess each team in your league, making note of their needs and wants. Write this down and have it handy during your draft. Ask yourself the following questions:

• Is this team contending, rebuilding or stuck in the middle?:

  • If they're a contender - they may be willing to sell picks (especially later ones) for veterans. They're likely not interested in waiting for a TE to develop, or a RB poised to sit for a year behind the starter. Take a look at some aging players you're hoping to ship away, and exchange them for younger picks and/or players.

  • If they're rebuilding - jot down a few veterans you think they may consider moving. For instance, if team X selects Brock Bowers at pick 7, maybe Mark Andrews is now available for a discount.

  • If they're stuck in the middle - anything is possible. Check in before the draft to see what their goals are and what they're looking for within their team. This will at least start a conversation and steer you in the right direction, instead of wasting your time sending out blind offers.

• How many picks do they have?

  • Sometimes people want to rebuild, but don't fully understand the concept. Rebuilding often takes several years, and is done properly by accumulating younger players and spreading picks among future drafts. Occasionally, you will find an impatient league-mate with far too many picks in the upcoming draft. Be a good pal and kindly remind them if they plan on using all these picks, they will have to make space on their bench - and that you would be so kind to help them out with their problem. Rarely do we see an NFL team successfully rebuild through free agency alone, and that applies in Dynasty as well.
    

  • At the end of each season, contenders ship away future picks in an attempt to win a Championship. This can leave them just a few picks (often later rounds) by the time the rookie draft starts. Take a moment to recognize who these teams may be, and if you have picks you're open to moving, reach out before the draft to see if you can gauge any interest. Everyone wants to be in on the action during drafts, and people are often far less rational once the clock starts.

Make Your Own Tiers:

Using tiers to rank players is a highly recommended strategy in both Dynasty and Redraft leagues. What this means is categorizing all players into groups based on your own values, with Tier 1 being the most valuable. For instance, prior to the '24 NFL Draft, most analysts and Dynasty analysts will have tiers consisting something similar to:

• Tier 1: Caleb Williams

• Tier 2: Jayden Daniels / Drake Maye / Marvin Harrison Jr.

• Tier 3: Malik Nabers / Rome Odunze / Brock Bowers

• Tier 4: JJ McCarthy / Brian Thomas / Xavier Worthy, etc.

*These are all pre-draft predictions. Applying draft capital will help place final values for each tier.

This tactic is helpful because based on your own valuations, you can decide if it is worth moving forward, back, or not at all when you're on the clock. For instance (using the tiers above):

• Instance #1: You pick at 1.02, but would be happy with any of the top four players. You can now ask your league-mates at 1.03 and 1.04 if they're interested in moving up. Field their offers and if you find one worthy, then gain value in another player / pick while moving back a few spots.
  

• Instance #2: You pick at 1.10, but you include Brian Thomas in Tier 3 of your rankings. With many mock drafts sending him to the Buffalo Bills, you may need to trade up to pick 7 or 8 before the draft, in case his landing spot sends him skyrocketing above the rest.
  

Come Prepared with Trade Offers:

Once your tiers are structured and team needs are defined, you can begin identifying offers and trade partners before entering the draft. You should have a reasonable idea of how round one will play out, and can use this information when the right time comes.

Within each offer, it's worth considering if this makes more sense to approach now - or if it may be better to wait until the clock is on, applying fear and acceptance motives to your offer.

• Instance #1: You pick at 1.09, while your league-mate at 1.01 already has a solid QB room. He is (almost) certainly taking Caleb Williams, so once that pick is made, you can check in with him to see if his QB3 or QB4 is now on the market. This person is high on life right now, and may be ready to get that dopamine hit again. Perhaps now he would be more likely to move on from a Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff or Brock Purdy for your late 1st.
  

• Instance #2: You pick at 1.02, but aren't fully convinced on any of the QB targets. You could potentially trade back within the same tier, or maybe you can send this pick away for a "sure thing." If you know someone is star-struck on Jayden Daniels or Marvin Harrison Jr., maybe they'd be willing to send you Joe Burrow or Jordan Love in return for that pick.

• Instance #3: You pick at 1.10 and you can't find a trade partner to move into the top three tiers. Maybe someone views the upside and/or landing spots of Xavier Worthy or AD Mitchell higher than waiting another year on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Or maybe someone values production right now over production next season. In that case we go..
  

• Instance #4: Back to the future! If you miss out on the tier(s) you were hoping for, don't be afraid to kick the can down the road. Trading a late '24 1st for a (potentially early) '25 1st (and maybe a 2nd or 3rd on top) may not hold any immediate value, but Dynasty is a long game. That new pick will increase in value over the next year, and just may land you a franchise player next season. This is never a sure thing of course, but is always worth keeping in your back pocket.

Watch the Sportsbook:

We can never be certain what will happen on draft night. There are always trades up and back, surprise picks made, and questionable decisions by GM's looking to the future (let the JJ McCarthy drama begin!).

What we do know is that Vegas is not in the business of losing money, and the odds set beforehand are the closest thing we have to predicting what may or may not happen on draft night. Vegas has access to far more information than we do, and being aware of odds movement can give you a slight edge - especially if you are proposing trades before the draft.

Here are a few examples via DraftKings Sportsbook:

• 2023 NFL Draft: How many RBs will be taken in the first round? (O/U 1.5):

  • The over on this bet shifted from +175 to -200 in the weeks leading up to the draft, displaying Vegas' confidence that both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs would be first round picks (Gibbs sat at -205 for first round odds by draft night). Both of them were off the board by pick 12. If you were hoping Gibbs would fall to you at 1.09, you were sorely mistaken, but if you understood the lines, you likely knew before the draft that you were going to need to move up to the 1.05 - 1.07 range to get him on your team.
    

• 2024 NFL Draft: Who will be taken at Pick No. 2?

  • For two years now, the unanimous top two picks have been QBs Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, and until recently, Vegas has had them both at the top the board. After a two-ish hour stint with the Raiders, the Commanders hired Kliff Kingsbury as their new OC, replacing a one year marriage with Eric Bienemy. My immediate thought was this could be an attempt to trade up and lure Williams to DC, reuniting him with his college Head Coach. My second thought was, if they are unable to land Williams, this would be a curious pairing with Maye, as Kingsbury's offenses have typically featured speed and athleticism at QB. Maye has an underrated rushing skillset, but he is more of a prototypical QB at 6'4", 230 pounds - which doesn't align with Kingsbury's history. The final piece to the puzzle was when the Commanders signed Marcus Mariota to a one-year, $8 million dollar contract. Did they need to do this when they still had a young Sam Howell on a rookie deal? Absolutely not. But if they were to build a new offense with a new OC, then it does make sense to have your "bridge" QB play the same style offense as the incoming draft pick. I quickly checked my Sportsbook and placed my bet on Jayden Daniels, still sitting at +110, the third highest odds. Shortly after, Sam Howell was shipped to the Seahawks, leaving Mariota as the sole mentor for the presumed young QB. Today as I write this, Jayden Daniels now has the second highest odds on the board, at -170. Could this all change in the coming weeks? Of course. But for fantasy purposes, it's looking increasingly likely that Daniels has the upside of his legs and the draft capital to back it up. Whether or not you're a Daniels believer, this is the type of information that you can use to either move up or down your rookie draft before your league-mates are aware.
    

Conclusion:

Entering your draft without preparation is downright silly, and will keep you at the bottom (or worse, the middle) of your league for years to come. Taking time beforehand to apply these strategies will help you show up prepared, confident and ready to negotiate when the time is right.

Thank you so much for being here!

Whether you agree or disagree, I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Leave a comment below with your favorite strategies leading up to the draft!