There are many important metrics when evaluating rookie prospects, but in the Dynasty community, draft capital is King.
Draft capital is defined as what round and pick a player is selected in the NFL draft. This assigns a "tangible" value to each player, and solidifies how highly the team (and entire NFL for that matter) values them as a prospect. The earlier a player is selected, the more the team has invested, and the less likely they are to give up on him, regardless of performance.
Just like anything in life, the NFL is always evolving. The game is always changing, and positional value changes with it. In Dynasty, we look for upside, which is what makes draft capital so important.
Today we are taking a deep dive into the good, the bad and the ugly of draft capital at each position.
Quarterbacks:
Quarterback is arguably the most important position in all of sports. It is also the most difficult position to evaluate from both Dynasty and NFL perspectives. QBs are expected to be the leader of their team, and are scouted to higher standards than most other positions. They are not only evaluated on arm talent, but on personality, leadership qualities, "football IQ," and increasingly today on physical tools and rushing abilities. Here is what NFL draft capital can tell you at the QB position:
Day One: Day one draft picks (especially top 10-15) at QB are undoubtedly the future of their franchise for a minimum of the next 3-4 years. The team has invested everything into this prospect (often trading multiple assets / picks to get them) with the belief that they have the tangible and intangible qualities to lead them to a SuperBowl. They have every intention of starting this pick as soon as possible, potentially even in their opening game.
Dynasty Value: Day one QBs hold tremendous upside, and should be among the first picks off the board in Dynasty rookie drafts, especially Superflex leagues. If your pick hits, you may have a starting QB for the next 10-15 years. Even if they never live up to expectations, the worst case scenario is that you still have a start-able and highly valued asset for the next 3-4 years.
Day Two: Day two QBs (rounds 2 and 3) are viewed as potential starters, but often as "developmental prospects." If they are ever going to play, they may need time in the NFL to learn and be coached to their highest potential. They are unlikely to start this season, and more likely to sit for at least one year behind a "bridge" QB.
Dynasty Value: While there are certainly success stories like Jalen Hurts (round 2) and Russell Wilson (round 3), these picks are far more destined to become Jacoby Brissett (round 3) or Malik Willis (round 3). The jury is still out Will Levis (round 2), but with that said, "journeyman" and backup QBs still hold value in Dynasty (especially those with rushing upside), and are completely acceptable picks in the late first, second or third rounds of rookie drafts.
Day Three: Outside of Tom Brady, day three (rounds 4-7) QBs are highly unlikely to hold long-term value. These players are destined to become life-long backups, at best.
Dynasty Value: Day three picks do not hold much value at all. They have low commitment from their team, and may never see a single snap in the NFL. These are late-round handcuffs in your rookie draft, and are recommended to "sell high" if they perform well in limited opportunities.
Wide Receivers:
Wide Receivers (along with QBs) should be at the core of your Dynasty team. With much longer lifespans than RBs, having elite WRs on your roster can carry your team for the next decade, as well as provide you with heavy trade ammunition when/if you choose to rebuild. In terms of Draft Capital..
Day One: Day one WRs are viewed as alpha #1 receiving options. NFL GM's believe they have game-changing talent that will bring their team to the next level.
Dynasty Value: If you land an asset of this caliber, your Dynasty window has opened for quite some time. Unlike RBs, it is not uncommon for WRs to provide value and play well into their 30's (Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett, and Keenan Allen are all still contributing to fantasy rosters). Consider this player a foundational piece, and do everything in your power to build your team around them while they are still in their prime. If you were fortunate enough to draft a Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, or Garrett Wilson, your team has a bright future.
Day Two: Day two WRs are viewed as WR2s, with upside. They have the potential to be alphas, but often need a little more development. There is still plenty of value in day two wide receivers.
Dynasty Value: These prospects are not viewed as "elite," but are still highly regarded in NFL circles. There is a plan in place for this player, and a clear path to playing time within the first two years. Day two prospects do not often dominate early on, but do have the talent and upside to develop into alpha WRs. Landing spot often becomes more important with day two WRs.
Day Three: You'll notice a trend here, but day three picks (specifically rounds 5-7) are generally considered "shots in the dark." They are typically identified as backup-caliber players, who will likely not see the field until year two or three, if ever. The team has not invested much capital into them, and they will still need to earn their way onto the final roster.
Dynasty Value: Many day three WRs will not see the playing field in their careers, however there are always players who step into the right opportunity. Many teams will look for smaller, quicker slot receivers in these rounds, who can provide plenty of value in PPR formats.
Running Backs:
There once was a time where running back was viewed as the key to NFL success, but alas, those days are gone. In today's NFL, RBs have the shortest career span of any position, are typically used in committee backfields, and are fortunate to reach a second contract (often with a new team). Unless they are truly elite, they are viewed as replaceable, which can be done cheaply through the draft. Although RBs are still greatly important, it is the most thankless job in the NFL, and the average draft capital continues to prove this.
Day One: Ahh, the mythical day one RB. A rare creature, indeed! If a RB is drafted in the first round (which does not happen every year), consider this player a "can't miss" prospect at the position.
Dynasty Value: It is very difficult to pass on a day one RB. This is a rare opportunity to get the next Saquon Barkley, CMC, Jahmyr Gibbs, course, Bijan Robinson. The ceiling and floor are both very high for this individual, and the draft capital almost ensures they will be used as a 3-down back. The negative of this is that although receiving 20+ touches/game can be a fantasy goldmine, it also increases the likelihood of injury. With that being said, their skillset is so impressive that even with multiple years of injury, their value will remain intact, like Saquon and CMC have today.
Day Two: Day two is when the RB spending-spree begins. Because of the way the position is treated, the basic rule of thumb is to move the pick up one round. For example, in the '22 draft, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker both weren't taken until round two, and are currently both viewed as top-10 Dynasty RBs.
Dynasty Value: Day two picks are viewed as starting-caliber players, and have a clear path to playing time within the first two years. RBs drafted on day two hold high Dynasty value immediately, and should be taken in the first or second rounds of rookie drafts.
Day Three: Day three will see far more RBs drafted than either of the first two days. This is where NFL teams look for depth and upside. Although it is difficult to find fantasy value in the later rounds, if you know where to look, you just may find a diamond in the rough.
Dynasty Value: With Isaiah Pacheco being the late exception, day three RBs (especially rounds 5-7) are far less likely to be "bellcow" RBs. They may provide short-term Dynasty value, but NFL teams will not hesitate to add more talented players to the team given the opportunity.
For example: Michael Carter (4th round) had a very successful rookie year and was a highly sought-after Dynasty asset, but his value plummeted when the Jets drafted Breece Hall in the second round.
Tight Ends:
Tight ends face arguably the most difficult learning curve of any position entering the NFL. They don't have the luxury of focusing on one skillset, like many other positions. They must not only contain defensive ends and linebackers as an interior blocker, but also be able to beat them downfield as a receiving threat. They are essentially asked to learn two separate offenses, explaining why they are so valuable to NFL teams, and why it is so rare to see TEs break out within their first year or two.
Day One: Day one TEs are viewed as a foundational piece to NFL teams. They will likely see the field immediately, and will be tasked with power run blocking, protecting the QB and providing a mismatch on opposing linebackers and cornerbacks downfield. NFL coaches love this versatility because it keeps the defense honest, never showing hand of whether they are running or passing. These players are (almost) guaranteed to see 80%+ of snaps for the next several years, and will be on the field in red zone situations, where TE value is at its highest.
Dynasty Value: Day one prospects have the upside of being top-10 at their position, and will be expected to excel at all areas in the NFL. However, it is important to keep in mind that outside of Sam LaPorta, most TEs do not show fantasy success within their first few years (TJ Hockensen was a top-10 pick in 2019 and finally "broke out" in 2022). Having young, talented TEs on your roster will always hold value, but some analysts will argue that it's better to let others draft them early, then try to buy low after a year or two of "disappointment." Unless their name is Kyle Pitts, the first TE is not usually drafted until mid-late picks in the first round of rookie drafts, at the earliest.
Day Two & Three: Just like the RB position, there is usually a lot of competition and depth for TEs entering the league, which creates value and pushes draft capital down. Due to the position, day two and three TEs can also be evaluated slightly higher than their actual draft capital, and the TE "run" typically occurs in the third and fourth rounds.
Dynasty Value: If you choose to forego the top TEs, using your second, third, fourth, etc. round rookie picks to fill your bench with high-upside TEs is never a bad idea. Prospects like Trey McBride (round 2), Michael Mayer (round 2), and Jake Ferguson (round 4) were all drafted on days two and three of the NFL draft, and are all firmly inside the top 20 Dynasty TE rankings today.
Conclusion:
The rookie draft is the most exciting time of the year, but unfortunately, there are no guarantees in this business. There is no analyst or podcaster who is perfect. Hell, even the NFL Executives, who get paid millions of dollars to do this, often don't know what they're doing.
If they did, then Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold would not have been drafted before Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. N'Keal Harry would not have been drafted before AJ Brown and DK Metcalf. Clyde Edwards-Helaire would not have been drafted before Jonathon Taylor.
These are real-life decisions made by first ballot Hall of Fame NFL coaches. If Andy Reid and Bill Belichick can't get it right, then how the heck are we supposed to!?
This is the beauty of Dynasty. You get to be the coach. You get to evaluate the talent. You get to have the final say. So trust your gut, and above all else, trust the draft capital.
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