Rookie drafts are the "Christmas mornings" of Dynasty leagues.
We spend all offseason reading, studying, watching film and listening to podcasts, but at the end of the day - we're simply making an educated guess. So how do we know if we're making the right decision?
Truthfully, we don't. There is no foolproof system or algorithm.
But there are tools you can use to your advantage. Tools you don't want your league mates to know. Tools that will give you the edge, and increase your chances of drafting the next superstar.
Today we will teach you how to scout like a pro. We will cover the most important metrics used in both the NFL and Dynasty communities, and provide the foundation for rookie evaluations for years to come.
1-5 Star (High School) Recruit:
Let's start from the beginning.
NCAA coaches and scouts begin recruiting as early as sophomore year of high school. Players are evaluated and ranked on a system of 1 to 5 stars before receiving their diploma or stepping foot on a college campus. Although not the most important metric by any means, it is worth making note of high school rankings while doing your draft preparation:
A 4 or 5-star high school recruit who also excels in college is a great indicator for NFL success. You can feel safe about this pick, knowing that this prospect has displayed elite athleticism at every stage of his football career, giving higher probability that this will continue at the next level.
Although many 3 (or lower) star recruits have gone onto have great collegiate and NFL careers, it may be worth digging deeper into why their ascent began so late (position change, personality concerns, etc).
College Dominator Rating:
The Dominator Rating was introduced in the book Game Plan by Frank DuPont. This rating (which does not apply to QBs) is essentially the player’s “market share” or percentage of their team’s offensive production, measuring touchdowns and total yardage.
Each position is measured differently (see "Breakout Age" below), but the wide receiver rule of thumb is:
20% < = Red flag
20 - 35%: Mid-level talent with upside
> 35%: Potential alpha WR1
For College Dominator Ratings and more, I recommend checking out Player Profiler!
Breakout Age:
"Breakout age" is the age a player reaches a specific Dominator Rating (or QBR) threshold for the first time in their careers. These percentages vary by position:
Quarterbacks: 50+ QBR (quarterback rating)
Running Backs: > 15%
Wide Receivers: > 20%
Tight End: > 15%
Historically speaking, a player who "breaks out" at a younger age (18 or 19) has a much higher success rate in the NFL than someone who only showed success in later years. Even at a younger age, they were able to compete at a high level against opponents who were often bigger, stronger and more experienced. A younger breakout age is also a great sign that a player may become an "early declare."
Early Declare:
The earliest a prospect can enter the NFL draft is before his senior year (typically around age 21).
By choosing to forego his final year, he is designated an early declare.
Early declares are elite-level talents. NFL scouts are confident they are ready to play immediately, and do not need another year of development in the NCAA. Early declares are not only an indication of superior athleticism, but they also enter the NFL a full year younger than most other players. This is extremely valuable in Dynasty formats because not only are you drafting a special talent, but you will potentially gain an extra full year of production from them.
The NFL Combine:
The Combine is one of the most widely debated draft topics in the Dynasty community. This event is held each year to measure prospects on medical, mental and physical levels. These individual performances (there are no pads, offenses or defenses) are compared to past and current draft classes, allowing NFL evaluators to establish strengths, weaknesses and the role(s) they envision with their team.
Although many argue that the Combine is not a key predictor for NFL success, Combine performance can drastically improve or hurt a player's draft stock, and is clearly taken into consideration in final evaluations. Most importantly for you, the Combine will shake up your rookie draft almost immediately.
For a more detailed breakdown of the NFL Combine, check out our article HERE.
Draft Capital ("Day One, Two & Three Picks"):
If you choose to only focus on one item in this article, it should be draft capital.
Draft capital is defined as what round and pick a player is selected in the NFL draft. This assigns a "tangible" value to the player, and solidifies how highly the team (and entire NFL for that matter) values him as a prospect. The earlier a player is selected, the more the team has invested in him, and the less likely they are to give up on him, regardless of performance.
The NFL Draft is held over a three-day span:
"Day One Pick": Day one holds only the first round of the NFL Draft. These are the highest valued prospects of this class, regardless of position, and are likely to be in the starting lineup immediately. In terms of Dynasty value, this all but guarantees playing time, and ensures the team will invest everything they have into their long-term success.
"Day Two Picks": Day two holds rounds 2 and 3. These are still highly-rated prospects who profile as starters within the first two years. There is still plenty of talent and value in day two picks, including players who may have "slipped" due to personality concerns or positional need.
"Day Three Picks": Day three holds rounds 4 through 7. These picks can still provide value and depth for your team, but are far less likely to hold long-term value. Although these players are still very talented, they don’t hold nearly as much value or commitment from the team.
For a detailed breakdown of draft capital by position, check out our article HERE.
Landing Spot:
Landing spot - defined as team and current situation - is another other widely-debated Dynasty topic.
There are two schools of thought with landing spot, and arguments can be made for either side:
Many in the industry believe that drafting the best prospect, regardless of landing spot, is always the correct decision. "Talent will prevail" in this mindset, and player situations can change drastically year-to-year via trade, release, etc.
Others feel that opportunity, coaching staff and history of player development can be more valuable than draft capital or prospect rankings.
The Eye Test:
This is the most subjective "metric" on this list, but is also the most exciting.
Remember - in Dynasty, you are the GM of your team.
You get to make final decisions of who to Keep, Trade or Cut. So get on YouTube and watch some film! Join the Dynasty Nerds film room, and gain access to all the information your heart could desire.
Do your research and trust your gut. Does this player pass the "Eye Test" for you? Do you believe their skillset will translate to the next level? We have proof every single year that NFL scouts aren't perfect,
so who's to say you can't do better? Don't be afraid to take chances, and enjoy the process!
Conclusion:
None of these metrics alone can predict NFL success.
There will always be anomalies to any rule. There will always be undrafted stars like Victor Cruz and Adam Thielen, and there will always be highly-touted letdowns like Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.
There is no way to be certain you are drafting the next superstar - but by understanding and applying these metrics, you can think like an NFL executive, and tilt the odds in your favor. Now use this knowledge to take down your friends, and build your own Dynasty.
And when you do, we'd love to hear from you!
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