The NFL Combine is arguably the most important and most useless event leading up to the draft.
In the NFL equivalent of "field day" from 3rd-grade gym class, franchises send their top evaluators to watch prospects compete in drills without pads or opposing defenders. This information is used to supplement their scouting process, helping make final evaluations on each player's draft value.
Although in my opinion, 3-4 years of game film should be the main factor on draft day, it is evident that combine performances have the ability to sway franchises tremendously in both positive and negative directions. As a Dynasty manager, it's extremely helpful to understand which metrics are important at the combine, and what NFL scouts are looking for within each position.
Let's dig in.
The 40-Yard Dash:
The 40-yard dash is a straight-line sprint measuring speed, acceleration and quickness. It is the most advertised test at the combine, however, statistics show that 40-times alone don't always correlate to NFL success. For Dynasty purposes, we advise disregarding this time, because although it certainly is impressive, it doesn't take important variables into consideration, like the prospect's height and weight. Instead, what we do recommend is..
Speed Score (Weight-Adjusted 40-Yard Dash):
The speed score (or weight-adjusted 40-yard dash) was introduced by Bill Barnwell in the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus as a way to incorporate running back weights into 40-times. This formula in no way discredits smaller backs for great performances, but does add value to heavier, more "prototypical" running backs for comparable times. The speed score formula is: (Weight * 200) / (40 time ^ 4), however I prefer to support this gentleman, who posts the results each year on Reddit (shown below).
Most prospects fall between a score of 85 - 110, with the average NFL RB testing around 100. A score of 110+ is considered elite in this category, and is worth monitoring come NFL draft day. Before the combine, Louisville's 23-year old (backup RB) Isaac Guerendo was a projected day-3 pick, if drafted at all. However, after posting the highest speed score since 2016, his name will likely rise up draft boards.
Height-Adjusted Speed Score:
Similar to the weight-adjusted speed score, the height-adjusted speed score was created to credit taller receivers and tight ends for better performances against smaller (and often lighter) competition. This formula divides the individual's height against the average height of all receivers, and is then multiplied by their speed score.
Both the height and weight-adjusted speed scores prove higher correlation to NFL success than the 40-yard dash alone.
Agility Score:
The agility score is simply the sum of the pro-agility shuttle (or 20-yard shuttle) and 3-cone times. Both of these drills are lateral movement tests measuring agility, body control, and most importantly, change
of direction. The lower the agility score, the better.
Depending on position, this is often regarded as more important than speed score, as most skill players do not rely on straight-line speed alone. For wide receivers, tight ends, and some running backs, the ability to separate from defenders is what makes them elite, and the agility score helps us identify that.
Burst Score:
The burst score measures explosiveness, and is also a great indicator for speed and quickness. It can be calculated by combining the maximum vertical jump height with the maximum broad jump distance.
This is especially important for wide receivers and tight ends, displaying their ability to beat opponents off the line of scrimmage, as well as highpoint the ball over defenders.
RAS (Relative Athletic Score):
If you don't feel like researching all of the combine events, the RAS Score is a single, all-encompassing metric calculated with each aspect of the player's combine taken into account (including many factors we haven't talked about like hand size, wingspan, BMI, etc).
The RAS score is scaled from 0 (lowest) - 10 (highest), comparing the prospect's athletic profile against the field. You can find and compare the RAS score of any player in NFL history HERE, with a sincere thank you to creator Kent Lee Platte. All of his work and data is provided for free, so if you find it useful and are feeling generous, send him a few bucks and your support!
SPARQ-x Score:
The SPARQ score is a formula designed (by Nike) to measure "sport-specific" athleticism in standardized fashion. The formula is comprised of four drills relating to Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction, and Quickness:
40-yard dash (speed)
Power ball toss (power)
Pro-agility shuttle (agility)
Vertical jump (reaction / quickness)
The SPARQ grading system has received criticism over time due to its lack of positional variables, but remains the standard metric at the combine today. Just do it.
The S2 Cognition Test:
The S2 Cognition Test was created to define an athlete's intangible qualities, measuring their cognitive abilities and in-game decision making skills. It is measured in five components , including: physical, cognitive, mechanics, tactical and psychological. This test has come under scrutiny recently after famously flunking CJ Stroud and allegedly affecting his draft stock.
Pre-Draft Interviews:
Pre-draft interviews are the greatest unknown in the draft process.
I have nothing to provide on this topic. I simply wanted to remind you that that we do not, and will not ever have all of the information when it comes to the combine. Just like any job interview, NFL coaches and GM's will factor a prospect's intangible qualities and traits into their final decisions on draft day.
Conclusion:
So, let's revisit our original question: Is the NFL combine important in Dynasty fantasy football?
The answer is obviously: "Yes, of course."
The combine can help you find athleticism in ways you not have had access to before. If you were paying attention in '22, you may have realized Rutgers RB Isaiah Pacheco held the #1 weight-adjusted speed score, over top-tier competition like Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker. After falling to the 7th round of the NFL Draft, the combination of athleticism and landing spot proved to be an absolute steal for anyone who took a shot on Pacheco in the 4th (or later) round of rookie drafts.
The answer is also: "No, not at all."
Combine results can also be misleading. They can make Dynasty managers (and the NFL) fall in love with players for the wrong reasons. These tests measure prospects on pure athleticism, not necessarily real-life football abilities.
For example, Anthony Richardson scored a perfect 10 RAS score in '23, tying Cam Newtown and Daunte Culpepper for the highest scores of all-time. If he has a career anywhere near Newton or Culpepper, your Dynasty team is going to be dominant. However, if his career resembles Marcus Mariota (9.94 - 4th highest all-time), Blaine Gabbert (9.92 - 8th all time) or RGIII (9.88 - 10th all time), you're going to be sorely let down. These are all very much in the realm of possibilities, and despite his absurd athleticism, he was still the third QB off the board on draft day.
Over the years, we have seen "average" collegiate players skyrocket because of a superior combine. We have also seen highly-touted prospects fall deep into the draft due to poor performances. Hell, a lot of players choose to not even attend or participate in this event (like Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, who are all projected to be taken in the top-10 picks). At the end of the day, it is one week of physical tests that will be factored into several years of game film. It is truly the "Underwear Olympics."
The best thing you can do as a Dynasty savant is stay patient, do your research, and remember that the combine is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. Let your league-mates overreact to what they think is going to happen, while you wait for what matters most: Draft Capital.
Then you can take your shots - and maybe, just maybe, you can spot that diamond in the rough.
Comments