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Writer's pictureNick Beaudoin

The Psychology Behind Fantasy Football Trades

Updated: Mar 26

Trading in fantasy football is complicated. It's extremely frustrating to put time and effort into a proposal, just to get rejected for reasons beyond your control. But the truth is, sometimes that rejection isn’t about the pieces at all.


It’s about the person behind it.


Behind every punny team name and list of players is a human being. A human being with thoughts, emotions, strengths and weaknesses, just like you. There are endless variables as to why they might (or might not) not accept your offer, but understanding the concept of Buyer Motivations just may help you unlock the trade that could change your season - or better yet, start your Dynasty.



Buyer Motivations (or Motives) are the psychological factors that encourage consumers to make a purchase. This negotiation tactic is taught to marketing and sales professionals to help influence buyers and get the deal done.


Every purchase is made based on one of two motivations: Emotional or Rational. Identifying your partner’s motive(s) will help determine the best approach before sending your proposal. Below we will establish four trade motives and strategies to consider when preparing your next offer.


Left (Rational) vs. Right (Emotional) Brain

 

1. Need = Rational Motivation:


Need is the most apparent buyer motive. When a player NEEDS something, or if their team has a problem that you can help solve, they will be inherently motivated to consider your offer.


In this instance, it’s helpful to start a conversation. Help them realize (on their own) that they have a need within their team. Here are some conversation starters you can try:


  • “Do you have any interest in Michael Pittman?”

  • “What would you want in return for TJ Hockensen?”

  • “Are you looking for another RB after the Nick Chubb injury?”

Despite “Need” being a rational motive, it is still believed that the single biggest motivator is emotional response. People are more likely to "buy" when they feel comfortable and the process feels natural.

Pride is always on the line in a trade, so by giving your partner “control” and letting them dictate the negotiation process can create an element of trust that may not exist when sending out a standard offer.


Dynasty managers were devastated to see Nick Chubb carted off the field

 

2. Impulse = Emotional Motivation:


Impulse buying is built on excitement, with the goal of motivating people to act quickly.

If you fall in love with Player X and predict their value increasing in the future, sometimes the best strategy is to just “overpay” from the start. Instead of lowballing and offending them (like so many of us love to do), surprise your trade partner with a little bit extra, or an offer they can’t refuse. Convince them to accept on impulse.


Let’s also discuss the concepts of player value and “overpaying.” Trade calculators like KeepTradeCut are valuable, but they aren’t everything. What they are, however, are helpful tools when trying to determine the public opinion on a player.


Let’s use Kyler Murray as an example:


  • In November '20, Murray sat on the QB1 throne as the most important asset in Dynasty. In order to obtain him, you were going to have to send away multiple first round picks or assets equal in value, just like you would with Josh Allen today.

  • In November '22, his stock had fallen down to QB9, where Anthony Richardson sits today. This is the current equivalent of a single Early '24 1st, Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall (RBs 1 & 2).

  • After his knee injury, his value continued sinking down to QB16, as Dynasty managers debated what to do with the young star. If you bought him at this point, you would have been buying at his lowest value, currently equal to Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff or a Mid '24 1st.

  • Despite playing less than half of the '23 season, Kyler has moved back up to QB11 (including rookies) on KTC, with plenty of reason to believe he will crack that top 10 again this year.


Depending when you bought or sold Kyler, he may have been (or could still be) a steal or an absolute bust. The point is, although a trade calculator may view you as "losing" a trade today, things could very well change in the future. Player / pick values can fluctuate drastically, but trust in yourself and your own valuations at the end of the day.


Kyler Murray's perceived value over time

 

3. Fear / Acceptance = Emotional Motivation:


By creating a sense of urgency, you can play off Fear and/or Acceptance motives to build irrationality that may not have existed before. Some examples of this are:


  • The Trade Deadline (Fear): Fear is considered the most powerful (and frowned upon) marketing tool in almost any situation. If your team is out of the playoffs, it may make sense to sell aging assets for future picks. If you can (subtly) bring awareness to your partner that their team will be Championship-caliber with the addition of your player, you can use the trade deadline to your advantage, potentially getting more in return than you would have a week before.

  • The Rookie Draft (Fear): Rookie draft picks gain value every second leading up to the pick. Your league-mates have been studying and falling in love with players for weeks, months, sometimes years leading up to this moment. If you are considering moving back or selling your pick, sometimes waiting until your rookie draft is a great time to capitalize on this motive.

  • Create a Bidding War (Acceptance): Acceptance is known as the “FOMO” of buyer motives, and is responsible for most trends in our society. Nobody wants to miss out on the next big thing, and everybody wants to be involved. If you have a coveted asset you are looking to move, consider making an announcement to your league that you are accepting offers, and create a bidding war to raise the price.



Marvin Harrison Jr. is ranked WR5 before ever stepping foot onto an NFL field

 

4. Aspiration = Emotional Motivation:


Aspirational buyers (and sellers) are motivated by self-improvement. This is almost always an emotional decision, and is helpful when someone shows interest in a specific pick or player. If you are open to dealing the asset, this allows you to begin the negotiation with a higher asking price than normal. Depending how highly they value them, they may be willing to pay more than they would actually like.


Take some time to consider your options, then plan multiple offers out in advance. Start with an offer that (you assume) is higher than they are willing to pay, but not offensive. Find that sweet spot.


Be patient for their response. If they reject, then be prepared with 1-2 more more "reasonable" offers that you would still be willing to accept. You've set the asking price high, so the idea is that after scoffing at your initial offer, one of these next two will be just right.


Just remember, you have the upper hand, and you do not need to move the asset if you don't want to. But no matter which side of the trade you are on, you are both motivated with aspirations of creating a Dynasty.


Will Kirk Cousins help elevate Drake London into WR1 status?

 

Conclusion:


Making trades in Dynasty is like riding the stock market. There are no defined rules or guidelines. There are no guarantees your offer will be accepted, or work out like you hoped. There is no perfect formula to pulling off trades, but understanding and applying Buyer Motives can give you the advantage to get that deal done.


So be patient, and remember to have fun. It’s just a game.


Just kidding. Fuck that.









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